Odds on a Harris double win in November are improving

The odds on a Harris double in November, with Kamala winning the White House and Simon holding on to the Taoiseach’s office, are looking increasingly good as the summer draws to a close. The fact that both Harrises are in with a fighting chance shows how the political mood of a country, and a government’s fortunes, can be transformed by a change of leader.
Back in April, Fine Gael was gripped by a mood of defeatism as the party languished under 20 per cent in the polls and a succession of experienced TDs announced their intention of standing down at the next general election. After 13 continuous years in office many in the party seemed exhausted and were even beginning to relish the prospect of responsibility-free opposition.
As taoiseach Leo Varadkar struggled to connect with the public and gave the impression of being more remote than ever, there was a growing consensus that the outcome of the local and European elections in June would be a disaster that could prompt a crisis in the party.
Then just a few days before the Fine Gael ardfheis in Galway in April, Varadkar announced he was stepping down. There was a seamless handover to Harris, our youngest ever Taoiseach, who took off like an Olympic sprinter and hasn’t paused for breath since.
He started by wowing the Fine Gael faithful at the ardfheis and then proceeded to connect with the public by criss-crossing the country in a gruelling programme that has involved meeting as many people as possible. That was on top of the normal job of government and Dáil exchanges in which he surprised the doubters by showing himself well capable of dealing with whatever was thrown at him.
The good performance of Fine Gael in the local and European elections in June was an early vindication of Harris and reflected the transformation of morale within the party. However, the really big challenge has yet to come with the timing and execution of the general election campaign being the true test of the young leader. Both his predecessors messed up their election timing, so getting that right will be critical to determining the outcome.
Only a few weeks ago, US Democrats were also in a mood of despondency, with polls indicating that Joe Biden’s chances of winning a second term were declining by the day. Despite his real achievements in office, a majority of voters had come to the conclusion that he was simply too old to serve a second term and all the momentum was with his opponent, Donald Trump.
Biden had done his country, and the entire world, a real service by defeating Trump four years ago and he was convinced that he was the only Democrat candidate who could do it again. Given Hillary Clinton’s failure in 2016 that did not appear to be an unreasonable assumption but his muddled performance in the television debate with Trump exposed his age as a fatal weakness.
While he clearly took some convincing that he was not up to the challenge, Biden’s decision to step out of the contest was a courageous one that has transformed the campaign. The quick decision of the Democrat hierarchy to rally behind Harris was crucial in providing her with the launch pad to make an immediate impact before this week’s convention in Chicago.
Back in spring, when she was campaigning for the Republican nomination against Trump, Nikki Haley said that if either party picked a younger candidate, then Biden or Trump would be toast. Republicans stuck with Trump but Democrats have done what was required to change the dynamic of the campaign.
As in Ireland, there is still a long way to go. There are bound to be twists and turns along the road to November 5th but at least there is now a real chance that a second Trump presidency can be averted.
While the course of events in both countries shows how a new leader chosen at the right time can energise a party, and potentially a country, the courage shown by both Varadkar and Biden in stepping down should be acknowledged. Leaders rarely know when it is time to go and both showed a level of self-awareness and public spirit that history is likely to applaud.
US presidential historian Timothy Naftali of Columbia University has observed that Biden’s one-term presidency is destined to be viewed in positive terms. “He brought us out of Trumpian chaos. He restored America’s role in the world, restored the trust of allies. He pushed adversaries away from goals they were hoping to achieve. Without anything like the majorities of Franklin Roosevelt or Johnson, his deft touch with Congress led to a deepening of the social safety net, brought technology to bear in the problem of climate change without sacrificing American jobs, and made a generational commitment to American infrastructure.”
If Harris wins in November, Biden’s final achievement will have been to ensure that Trump does not make it back to the White House but, even if the worst happens, much of what he has done will stand the test of time.